Module scheduled production for glass modules has been declining, while upstream prices remain temporarily stable. [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary]

SMM June 30 News:

Silicon Metal Prices

Prices

Recent silicon metal spot and futures prices have risen, driven by supply-side news of production cuts from major producers, expectations of polysilicon resumption in demand, and cost-side disruptions, leading to a recovery in market sentiment. Suppliers have raised their spot quotations, while downstream players remain cautious, increasing the market's bargaining sentiment.

Production

Supply-side reductions in Xinjiang have led to a decline in recent silicon metal supply. The duration of this production cut is uncertain, with attention on the operational dynamics and shipment mentality of major producers.

Inventory

Social Inventory: SMM statistics show that as of June 26, the total social inventory of silicon metal in major regions was 542,000 mt, down 17,000 mt WoW. Among these, the general warehouse inventory was 128,000 mt, down 3,000 mt WoW, and the delivery warehouse inventory (including unregistered warrants and spot parts) was 414,000 mt, down 14,000 mt WoW. (Excluding Inner Mongolia, Gansu, etc.)

Polysilicon

Prices

Over the weekend, N-type recharging polysilicon prices were 34-36 yuan/kg, with the N-type polysilicon price index at 34 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices were largely stable over the weekend, but a sharp rise in futures prices on Friday triggered a wait-and-see sentiment. Currently, spot market transactions are limited, with buyers mainly observing.

Production

June polysilicon production is expected to be around 100,000 mt. In July, multiple bases show mixed performance, but overall, there is a higher probability of an increase in total polysilicon production, though the growth may be limited.

Inventory

Currently, polysilicon inventory remains under significant pressure, with total polysilicon market inventory still exceeding three months.

Modules

Prices

The current price spread for modules has widened. The mainstream transaction prices for N-type 182mm modules in centralized projects are 0.648-0.66 yuan/W, and for N-type 210mm modules, 0.663-0.675 yuan/W. TOPCon distributed 182mm module prices are 0.678-0.701 yuan/W, and distributed 210mm module prices are 0.683-0.706 yuan/W. All prices include freight.

Production

Module planned production for July is 45-46 GW, down 2%. Most module manufacturers have reduced production due to a significant decline in July orders, while a few leading module manufacturers have increased production.

Inventory

Modules are currently in an inventory buildup cycle, with 183mm module inventory being higher than 210N and 210R.

High-Purity Quartz Sand

Prices

Current domestic inner-layer sand prices are 60,000-68,000 yuan/mt, mid-layer sand prices are 31,000-42,000 yuan/mt, and outer-layer sand prices are 17,000-24,000 yuan/mt. Recent poor demand from the wafer segment, along with ongoing inventory pressure on crucibles, has led to a downward shift in the center of crucible transactions, affecting the purchasing sentiment for quartz sand. Recently, there have been few transactions in the quartz sand market, with most companies in the negotiation phase.

Production

Recently, the operating rates of domestic silica sand enterprises have increased slightly, but the subsequent increase will be limited, and the market still shows oversupply.

Inventory

The inventory of silica sand enterprises has increased slightly, and the purchase sentiment of crucibles is poor, with enterprises adopting a wait-and-see attitude cautiously.

PV Glass

Price

3.2mm single-layer coating: The quoted price for 3.2mm single-layer coated PV glass is 18-19 yuan/m², with prices falling.

3.2mm double-layer coating: The quoted price for 3.2mm double-layer coated PV glass is 19-20 yuan/m², with prices falling.

2.0mm single-layer coating: The quoted price for 2.0mm single-layer coated PV glass is 10.5-11.2 yuan/m². Recently, glass prices have fallen again, increasing the pressure of losses in the industry. Additionally, under the influence of production cuts on the supply side, the subsequent price decline is expected to be limited.

2.0mm double-layer coating: The quoted price for 2.0mm double-layer coated PV glass is 11.5-12.2 yuan/m², with prices falling.

Production

Recently, the plugging of domestic glass furnaces has intensified, with a 650 mt/day furnace in the Ningxia region beginning to shut down. Market supply is expected to continue to decline.

Inventory

The days of inventories in the industry are rising, with the inventory of some glass enterprises approaching full capacity, resulting in significant inventory pressure in the industry.